As ZEV ownership moves past ‘early adopters’ into the more price-sensitive ‘early majority’ market segment, there is a shift in the average consumer profile towards greater reliance on public charging and greater demand for lower cost vehicles. ​

The rising cost of public charging and the lack of vehicle choice across lower price bands is a dual threat to wider uptake. ​

Where it does work, ZEVs bed in. A recent survey by a leasing company found that over 75% of EV drivers wouldn’t go back to petrol or diesel, with significant annual savings reported ranging from £1,000 to £5,000 compared to ICE alternatives [S1]. However, around half of EV drivers also own a petrol or diesel vehicle, suggesting some hesitation in transitioning to electric vehicles fully [S2]. 

A reported side effect of the recent improvements in vehicle specifications has been a delay by some fleets to switch to ZEV. Until technology improvements and price reductions start to level out, there will be concern about missing out on higher performance vehicles and stranded assets.​

The past year has seen improvements in the specifications of commercial vehicles with van ranges, efficiency and charging speeds increasing significantly across existing and new model lines. ​

Nearly all vans and over half of trucks are now capable of rapid charging (>50 kW), whilst around half (47%) of the most popular van models have a quoted range greater than 200 miles. They still lag significantly behind cars in both ranges and, crucially, their efficiency. ​

Whilst electric vans may appear suitable on paper, the reality of their real-world performance (i.e. range), strenuous utilisation, and challenges with public charging suitability can make them difficult to operate in practice. ​

Real-world electric range remains a key barrier for commercial vehicle adoption. Van performance is significantly affected by payload, with a payload of 50% found to reduce the quoted WLTP range by 20-25% [S3][S4].​

Charging times are the top concern amongst van drivers according to a recent study [S5][S6]. ​

The most recent IMI forecast continues to show an excess of TechSafe-qualified ZEV technicians in the near-term, and growth in the qualification rates compared to the same period last year [S7]. However, the IMI now predicts that there will be a deficit in trained EV technicians by 2030, two years earlier than the previous forecast. ​

This is driven by the anticipated rise in demand for EV aftermarket services and labour shortages across the sector as a whole [S8], [S9]. In April 2024, there were four vacancies for every employee in the sector. ​

There is also a regional disparity in ZEV technicians, and there is also a faster take-up of trained technicians in dealerships compared to independents. ​

Fleet operators have reported that insurance claim costs and repair times for BEVs continue to remain higher than ICE. This is due to more specialised and complex repair technologies and processes and shortages in parts and skills for non-standard repairs. A 2023 report found that insurance claims following a BEV incident were around 25% higher than for ICE and took 14% longer to repair[S10].​

New international research shows that almost one in five fleets are seeing a rise in vehicle downtime since 2023. This general trend has been driven by fleets operating older vehicles since the pandemic due to a lack of new vehicles, leading to greater maintenance and repair requirements. This is compounded by the short supply of spare parts for certain manufacturers and models [S11].

Current and projected electric car (left) and electric van (right) share of sales relative to the ZEV mandate target in 2024. (Ricardo analysis of DfT data (2024) and SMMT forecast (2024)

ZEV car sales continue to see growth. While the growth has slowed down, it is still strong. ​

Car growth is driven by the “fleet” sector, which accounts for more than four out of five new ZEV registrations [S12]​

The fleet label hides significant underlying differences—from dealer pre-registration and rental to salary sacrifice and Motability vehicles, all are “fleet.” A deeper analysis is needed to truly understand ZEV sales progress.    ​

What is clear for cars is that without the right stimulus, demand is weak.​

Vans have a much starker picture. Demand is falling, not growing. Year to date, fewer BEV vans have been sold in absolute numbers in 2024 (8,353) compared to 2023 (8,803). Market share is also falling (down 0.5%) [S13]. The van transition is in crisis, and it seems highly unlikely that the forecasts for the year can hold up.